The euro fell to an eight-month low against the dollar before European finance ministers gather today to weigh the threat of a default in Greece, which is making fresh budget cuts to secure an international bailout.
The 17-nation euro slid for a second day before the meeting, at which officials will discuss how to shield banks from the region’s debt crisis and consider increasing their rescue fund. The yen climbed against the dollar after a survey showed that sentiment at Japan’s biggest manufacturers remained below levels seen before a record earthquake struck in March.
“The key question will be whether Greece has done enough to secure the next tranche of its bailout fund,” said Jane Foley, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank International in London. “The concern about the euro-zone crisis, layered on top of poor growth expectations, weigh on the euro.”
The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3353 per dollar as of 9:51 a.m. in London from $1.3387 in New York last week, after declining to $1.3314, its weakest since Jan. 18. The common European currency slid 0.5 percent to 102.58 yen from 103.12 yen on Sept. 30, when it lost 1.3 percent. The dollar was 0.3 percent weaker at 76.82 yen.
The Australian dollar weakened 0.3 percent to 96.37 U.S. cents after falling to 95.93 U.S. cents, the lowest since Dec. 1, 2010, while New Zealand’s currency fell to as low as 75.74 U.S. cents, the least since March 30.
Australian, Chinese and South Korean financial markets are shut today for public holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 2.8 percent.
Greek Austerity
Today’s Luxembourg meeting was the original target date for approving an 8 billion-euro ($11 billion) loan payment to Greece, the sixth installment of the 110 billion-euro lifeline assembled in May 2010. That decision was pushed back until mid- October as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou tries to close a deficit gap.
Greece’s government approved 6.6 billion euros of austerity measures, including firing state workers, the Finance Ministry said yesterday.
There’s “no credible alternative” to channeling aid to Greece, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Sept. 30 after meeting Papandreou.
Europe’s “crisis will probably be stretched for many, many months,” said Imre Speizer, a strategist in Auckland at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender. “A crisis prolonged means the euro will keep sliding. A full bailout and the stemming of contagion coming out of Europe requires a lot of money, certainly more than the 440 billion euros that they’ve agreed on so far.”
Net Shorts
The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a drop in the euro versus those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- climbed to 82,473 in the week ended Sept. 30. That’s up from 79,460 a week earlier, statistics from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed Sept. 30.
The yen climbed against the dollar after the Bank of Japan said today its quarterly Tankan index of sentiment was 2 in September from minus 9 in June. The reading was below the reading of 6 in March and in line with the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average declined 1.8 percent. The nation’s large manufacturers expect the yen will average 81.15 per dollar this fiscal year, according to the BOJ’s survey.
U.S. Manufacturing
The dollar rose against most of its major peers before data today that may show U.S. manufacturing maintained growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index was at 50.3 in September, above the 50 level that divides expansion and contraction, from 50.6 in August, according to the median estimate of economists.
A final reading for a euro-area manufacturing gauge showed a drop to 48.5 last month, the least since August 2009. That’s down from 49.0 in August, and compares with a median forecast of a decline to 48.4 in a Bloomberg survey.
“The fact that there are some indicators in the U.S. that are showing at least a little bit of strength at a time when the growth momentum in the euro zone is stalling, that should oblige euro-dollar to move lower,” said Callum Henderson, global head of foreign-exchange research in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc.
The dollar advanced 8.1 percent in the past month, the best performer among the 10 developed-nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes. The greenback tends to appreciate during periods of economic and financial turmoil because it is the world’s reserve currency.
read more: Olympus Wealth Management
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