Monday 19 December 2011

Attention Shift's to North Korea's Young Leader


The inheritor of the North Korean dictatorship, Kim Jong Eun, the third and youngest son of Kim Jong Il, had never been mentioned by the isolated country's state media before September last year. Since then, little has been revealed about North Korea's new leader.

With the death this weekend of Kim Jong Il, his successor's youth, inexperience and lack of public exposure raise significant questions about whether he can, or even will, run the country. A smooth transition of power is far from certain.

Mr. Kim was born either in 1983 or 1984, according to the South Korean government. He studied for a few years as a teenager in Switzerland and then at a military academy in Pyongyang. His ascent to power was accelerated after his father suffered a strokelike illness in August 2008.

The ruling Worker's Party of Korea in September, 2010 handed Kim Jong Eun the post of four-star general in the Korean People's Army and a position on the military commission of the party, effectively appointing him to succeed his father as the head of North Korea's military-dominated dictatorship.

During the last transition of power in North Korea, Kim Jong Il was far better known to North Koreans and outsiders than Kim Jong Eun is today. The younger Mr. Kim has been in the public eye for only a year; when his grandfather, North Korea founder Kim Il Sung, died in 1994, Kim Jong Il had been known to North Koreans for 20 years. And for more than 10 years before his father's death, Kim Jong Il was portrayed as active in government policy-making.

Kim Jong Il's sister, Kim Kyong Hui, and her husband, Jang Song Taek, a close aide to Kim Jong Il, could act as regents for Kim Jong Eun to help him gain enough power within the Worker's Party as well as the military to run the regime, some analysts say. Questions remain whether the couple will pose as rivals to the younger man.

"It's been only about a year and three months since Kim Jong Eun was officially tapped, so it would be very difficult for him to effectively seize power within the old guard in the party as well as the military," said Yoo Dong-ryul, a researcher at the Police Science Institute in South Korea. "I think whether Kim Jong Eun succeeds will ultimately depend on the role by Jang Song Taek."

The death of Kim Jong Il also raises the question of who among those who served him will carry out his wishes after his death.

Since Kim Jong Eun's public appointment, he has frequently been spotted with his father on the elder Mr. Kim's regular inspections of military and other facilities.

The first such event took place in early October last year when he was shown observing a military exercise alongside his father.

His first public photo was released the previous month. It showed the young Mr. Kim bearing a striking resemblance to his grandfather, the revered founder of North Korea, Kim Il Sung—an image seen in South Korea as a possibly intentional effort to boost Kim Jong Eun's legitimacy with the North Korean people.

The younger Mr. Kim's need for support from senior military and political leaders means that he is unlikely to be open to political and economic reforms, says Bruce Klinger, Korea analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington. "If anything, he may have to take a hard-line policy as a way of proving himself to challengers or to these senior leaders," Mr. Klinger said.

In announcing the death of the elder Mr. Kim Monday morning, a weeping anchorwoman in a black hanbok, or traditional Korean dress, referred to Kim Jong Eun as "great successor to the revolutionary cause of Juche and outstanding leader of our party, army and people." Juche is North Korea's state ideology, which emphasizes independence and self-determination.

"Under the leadership of Kim Jong Eun we should turn our sorrow into strength and courage and overcome the present difficulties and work harder for fresh great victory of the Juche revolution," North Korea's state news agency said in a statement.

"There is no question that Kim Jong Eun will lead the country eventually, but the question now is when it will happen," said Kim Kwang-jin, senior fellow at Institute for National Security Strategy, a government research institute in Seoul. He said it is unlikely for North Korea to give Kim Jong Eun the formal titles of his father any time soon, citing that the regime observed a three-year mourning period when Kim Il Sung died in 1994.

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