Friday 3 February 2012

U.S. Fears Iran's Links to al Qaeda

U.S. officials say they believe Iran recently gave new freedoms to as many as five top al Qaeda operatives who have been under house arrest, including the option to leave the country, and may have provided some material aid to the terrorist group.

The men, who were detained in Iran in 2003, make up al Qaeda's so-called management council, a group that includes members of the inner circle that advised Osama bin Laden and an explosives expert widely considered a candidate for a top post in the organization.

The assertions are likely to amplify tensions between Washington and Tehran. A Senate committee on Thursday moved to intensify sanctions to force Iran into negotiations on its nuclear program, while Tehran has largely defied pressure. This week, Iran prevented U.N. nuclear inspectors from gaining access to sites and scientists, according to diplomats.

Skeptics caution that intelligence on Iran's activities is limited and worry that some policy makers might use provocative reports to justify military action against Tehran. Iran has denied any connection with al Qaeda.

U.S. officials believe there have been recent indications officials in the Iranian government have provided al Qaeda operatives in Iran limited assistance, including logistical help, money and cars, according to a person briefed on the developments.

Adding to the U.S. pressure on Iran, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told senators in an annual intelligence assessment that U.S. agencies believe the Iranian regime is now more willing to conduct an attack in the U.S.

"We have to be vigilant for more of that," Mr. Clapper told lawmakers Thursday.

The reports come at a time of growing concern about Iran's decision-making. President Barack Obama, in last month's State of the Union address, said "America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal."

Even among U.S. officials who believe Iran has given greater freedoms to al Qaeda operatives, there is substantial debate within the U.S. government about whether that means there are significant ties between Iran and al Qaeda.

Some officials say it is too early to draw conclusions about Iran's intentions and caution against judgments that Iran is posing an imminent threat.

"There is not significant information to suggest a working relationship between Iran and al Qaeda," said a U.S. official.

Said another U.S. official: "Al Qaeda moving fighters or money is one thing, while planning major terrorist attacks against the West from Iranian soil is probably something [Iran] won't allow."

Iran and al Qaeda have a long history of differences, particularly religious ones: Iran is Shiite Muslim and al Qaeda is Sunni. The regional aims of Iran and al Qaeda remain sharply divergent, particularly in Iraq. Iran has long supported Shiite extremist groups and militias, which are bitterly opposed to Sunni groups, the sect from which al Qaeda has drawn support.

Hillary Mann Leverett, a former National Security Council aide in the Clinton and Bush administrations, strongly urged caution in drawing links between Iran and al Qaeda, noting that Iran in the past repatriated more than 200 al Qaeda operatives that had crossed into Iran, and even provided copies of their passports to the United Nations.

"I think [there] is a war-fevered hysteria that is going on now," she said. "A lot of this stuff is really flimsy and is really questionable."

Ms. Leverett added that if Iran is in fact granting more freedom to al Qaeda members, it may not represent an effort to partner with al Qaeda, but rather a decision that letting them go could stir up trouble for the U.S. "'Let the United States deal with it,'" would be Iran's logic, she said.

Nonetheless, some officials and experts worry conditions may be ripe for a more direct partnership between Iran and al Qaeda as both come under pressure by the U.S. and the West.

Much of the al Qaeda senior leadership has been killed by the Central Intelligence Agency's drone campaign and the commando raid that killed bin Laden last year—meaning the organization needs to replenish its leadership ranks.

"For al Qaeda core, it's one of their best hopes of reviving themselves," said Bruce Hoffman, an al Qaeda specialist at Georgetown University.

"Al Qaeda is in deep trouble right now, but they do have some senior leaders outside the country in some locations that are not easy to get at," said Seth Jones of Rand Corp., who wrote a recent article in Foreign Affairs on the potential Iran-al Qaeda partnership.

Tehran, for its part, under growing pressure from Western sanctions, needs allies.

Iran has, in effect, provided sanctuary to several senior al Qaeda leaders over the years, Mr. Jones said. Some al Qaeda operatives fled to Iran when the U.S. launched its Afghan offensive in 2001. Since then, these operatives have communicated, moved money and facilitated recruiting from their Iranian beachhead, Mr. Jones said. Some lower-level al Qaeda operatives are also believed to be in Iran.

After an al Qaeda attack in Saudi Arabia in 2003, Iran placed most of the operatives under house arrest. But they still were permitted to communicate with other operatives and transfer funds to their counterparts in Pakistan, said Mr. Jones.

The management council, a group of advisers to al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan, includes planner and explosives expert Saif al Adel, who is from Egypt; spokesman Sulayman Abu Ghayth, of Kuwait; Abu al-Khayr al-Masri, of Egypt, who was a member of bin Laden's inner shura council; planner Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, of Egypt; and spiritual leader Abu Hafs al-Mauritani, a Mauritanian.

Together, they comprise some of the group's financial, spiritual and operational leaders, many with long-standing ties to senior al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan.

It isn't clear whether the five men would take advantage of an offer to return to their home countries—where they could face arrest and prosecution—or if Iran would allow them to go to another country, such as Pakistan, U.S. officials said. Nor is it clear what restrictions, if any, would be placed on them if they remain in Iran, the officials said.

Mr. Adel has been considered a rising star within al Qaeda. He is under U.S. indictment for his alleged role in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Africa. In the wake of bin Laden's death, Mr. Adel's name was floated in reports out of the region as a potential candidate to lead the international organization.

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